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India to surpass China to become 2nd largest oil demand centre in 2019

Press Trust of India

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New Delhi: India will surpass China to become the second largest oil demand growth centre globally in 2019 on back of buoyant auto fuel and LPG consumption, research and consultancy group Wood Mackenzie said on Tuesday.

In a report, Wood Mackenzie said India’s oil demand growth recovered strongly in 2018, overcoming the aftermath of the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) and demonetisation, and contributed 14 per cent of the global demand growth or 2,45,000 barrels per day.

“We forecast oil demand to grow at the same level in 2019. This will result in India becoming the second largest demand growth centre globally in 2019, behind the US but ahead of China. Transport fuels – gasoline and diesel – and residential LPG will continue to be the two main drivers of oil demand growth,” it said.

 

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), India is currently ranked behind the United States and China as the world’s third-largest oil consumer. It consumed 206.2 million tonnes (over 4 million bpd) in the 2017-18 fiscal year.

During April-December, consumption of petroleum products has been 157.4 million tonnes, up 2.5 per cent over year-ago period.

Last August, oil cartel OPEC projected India’s oil demand to rise by 5.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2040, accounting for about 40 per cent of the overall increase in global demand during the period.

Mackenzie said diesel, the most consumed fuel in the country, is projected to grow by 6.4 per cent or 1,12,000 bpd year-on-year in 2019 compared with 93,000 bpd in 2018.

This was because of “buoyant commercial vehicle sales facilitated by sustained infrastructure growth, and increasing demand from the construction, logistics, e-commerce and consumer goods sectors,” it said.

Also, the push will come from a demand-based approach instead of a tax-based approach in the logistics sector, following the implementation of the GST, which has led to the removal of inter-state taxes. “This is a structural shift, resulting in increased demand for heavy and medium-duty trucks to achieve economies of scale and operational efficiency.”

More importantly, general elections in May will lead to increased travel activity for campaigning and implementation of infrastructure projects, which will bolster demand in the first half of 2019, Mackenzie said.

 

“Key risks ensue as crude price volatility is expected to persist. Historically, short-term gasoline demand has been relatively inelastic to retail prices in developing economies such as India. Even though higher retail prices affect consumer sentiment for new vehicle purchases, we believe this trend will continue with income effects driving the demand, subduing the price effects,” it said.

LPG demand growth will remain robust in 2019 at 5 per cent (40,000 bpd) although it is lower than the 56,000 bpd growth achieved in 2018. “The number of new household LPG customers continued to surge, driven by the Ujjwala scheme to promote clean cooking fuel in rural areas. That said, there is a largely untapped market, as around 50 million households remain deprived of LPG,” it said.

On the use of electric vehicles, it said only 2,60,000 EVs have hit Indian roads, majority being two-wheelers.

“Electric car sales, for instance, declined by 40 per cent to a mere 1,200 units in the financial year 2018 over the financial year 2017, while electric two-wheeler sales rose 138 per cent to 54,800 units during the same period. In contrast, China had a stock of 1.8 million EVs and 258 million e-bikes at the end of 2018,” it said.

This year, it said, will be an important year as the final version of the National Auto Policy and the second phase of the FAME scheme will be released.

“The question is the timing – will it be before or after the elections? Will the Modi government change tack if it is not re-elected? Will this ambiguity continues to deter wider adoption? Automakers seem to have realised that EV adoption is not a question of ‘if’. For instance, Maruti Suzuki, the largest automaker in India, will launch an electric version of one of its best-selling entry-segment cars – the Wagon R – in Q1 2019,” Mackenzie said.

Another key challenge will be stakeholder management and coordination across the different ministries, government bodies and industry participants while the policy is formalised.

Stating that two-wheelers will dominate the electric mobility landscape in the personal transport sector, it said India offers huge potential for automakers as car ownership levels are very low (23 per 1,000 capita).

Rising income levels will increase car ownership and most global automakers are closely watching this lucrative market. At the same time, two-wheelers should not be ignored – with current ownership six times larger than four-wheelers.

“We believe that two-wheelers are the more effective option given their utility in intra-city travel, less need for public charging infrastructure and availability of battery technology. Two-wheelers will eventually leapfrog four-wheelers towards the goal of a greener and sustainable mobility future,” it added.

 


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Growth likely to reach 7.5% next fiscal: CEA

Agencies

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New Delhi: The economic growth is likely to accelerate to 7.5 percent in 2019-20, from 7.2 percent projected for the current fiscal, Chief Economic Adviser K V Subramanian has said.

“We have done the projections. All the external agencies and internally our estimates are also 7.5 percent (2019-20). The nominal rate we are expecting is 11.5 percent and inflation of about 4 percent,” he told PTI.

The Reserve Bank of India, in its latest monetary policy review released last week, too projected an economic growth rate of 7.4 percent for the next fiscal.

 

Talking about average growth in the last four years, he said the GDP growth rate has been 7.3 percent, highest across all government since liberalisation. This growth rate has been achieved amidst very low inflation.

Prior to 2014, the average inflation was in excess of 10 percent, he said, adding the significant reduction in inflation can be attributed to setting up of Monetary Policy framework that mandates the RBI to keep it within a particular band.

Monetary Policy Committee, the interest rate setting body headed by the RBI Governor, has been given objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4 percent within a band of +/- 2 percent, while supporting growth.

Earlier this month, Finance Minister Piyush Goyal in the Budget Speech had said that India is solidly back on track and marching towards growth and prosperity.

The past five years have seen India being universally recognised as a bright spot of the global economy, he said, adding that the country witnessed its best phase of macro-economic stability during this period.

“We are the fastest growing major economy in the world with an annual average GDP growth during last five years higher than the growth achieved by any government since economic reforms began in 1991,” he had said.

On fiscal deficit, Subramanian said, it has been secularly coming down and India is on the glide path to achieving the target set under the FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management) Act.

“This fiscal prudence has been achieved despite greater devolution to states. So as part to 14th Finance Commission, 42 percent is devolved to states from earlier 32 percent,” he said.

The Budget pegs fiscal deficit to be at 3.4 percent of the GDP for 2019-20.

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Jet Airways plans to raise about Rs 2,500 crore through rights issue

Agencies

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Mumbai: Cash-starved Jet Airways plans to raise about Rs 2,500 crore through a rights issue. Its lenders are also looking at a debt-to-equity conversion.

While lenders may convert Rs 1,000 crore of debt into equity, they will also participate in the equity infusion through a rights issue as part of the deal.
Additionally, promoter Naresh Goyal and Etihad Airways, which owns a 24 per cent stake in the airline, will infuse around Rs 2,000 crore into the airline, sources aware of the development said.

Lenders are expected to participate in a rights issue to raise capital. Government-owned infrastructure fund National Infrastructure Investment Fund (NIIF) is likely to buy a 19 per cent stake for Rs 1,500 crore. Along with the NIIF, banks will own a 51 per cent stake in the company.

 

The NIIF was approached by lenders after Etihad Airways refused to increase its stake beyond 25 per cent without an exemption from open offer. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) did not agree to the idea. NIIF Chief Executive Officer Sujoy Bose did not respond to multiple queries about the matter.

Sources said Etihad Airways would infuse around Rs 1,450 crore to maintain its stake at 24 per cent, promoter Naresh Goyal would bring in Rs 550 crore to hold around 21 to 22 per cent.

Goyal has already infused Rs 250 crore into the airline.

“At the first stage of the resolution plan, lenders have agreed to convert around Rs 1,000 crore of debt into equity. In the second stage, there will be a rights issue of around Rs 2,500 crore in which banks will participate. This process is subject to approval from the promoter, lenders and Etihad Airways. It may take around two months to close,” said an official of a state-owned lender.

Another source said the SBI-led consortium would release around Rs 550 crore in the next 15 days to bridge the immediate funding gap.

He said: “The draft resolution plan has been approved by the Jet board and needs approval of the boards of banks and Etihad. Besides, the approval of various regulatory authorities is also required. This would take a few months. There is an interim funding requirement of Rs 500-1,000 crore. Banks will make an assessment and lend the fund against security”.

The airline has a funding gap of Rs 8,500 crore. “There will be equity infusion, sale or sale and leaseback, debt-to-equity conversion, and refinancing of aircraft. A combination of all these will help to reduce the debt of the company. But, I will be unable to give you the numbers right now,” said Amit Agarwal, chief financial officer at Jet Airways.

The company’s board approved a draft resolution plan, which comprises conversion of debt into 110.4 million shares.

Jet had a gross debt of Rs 7,654 crore as of December-end, comprising aircraft loans worth Rs 1,700 crore. About 60 per cent of the loans are dollar denominated. Jet has called an extraordinary general meeting next week to secure shareholders’ nod for the issue of 110.4 million shares to lenders.

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RBI threatens action against Yes Bank for disclosing nil divergence report

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New Delhi: The Reserve Bank has warned Yes Bank of regulatory action for disclosure of nil divergence report in violation of the confidentiality clause, the private sector lender said.

Yes Bank in a press release earlier this week had said the RBI has not found any divergence in the asset classification and provisioning done by the lender during 2017-18.

In a regulatory filing , Yes Bank said it has received a letter from the RBI which noted that the Risk Assessment Report (RAR) was marked ‘confidential’ and it was expected that no part of the report be divulged except for the information in the form and manner of disclosure prescribed by regulations.

 

“Therefore, the press release breaches confidentiality and violates regulatory guidelines. Moreover, NIL divergence is not an achievement to be published and is only compliance with the extant Income Recognition and Asset Classification norms,” the RBI said in its letter.

“The issuance of the Press Release has, therefore, been viewed seriously by the RBI and could entail further regulatory action/s,” the letter added.

The RAR also identifies several other lapses and regulatory breaches in various areas of the bank’s functioning and the disclosure of just one part of the RAR is viewed by RBI as a deliberate attempt to mislead the public, the central bank said.

The RBI conducted its first asset quality review (AQR) of banks in 2015 in order to find corporate loan accounts with severe financial weakness which were still classified as standard accounts on the books of the lenders.

Post this review, RBI found a large divergence of Rs 4,176 crore in the reported gross NPAs in the books of Yes Bank for 2015-16.

Further, the RBI judged gross NPAs at Rs 8,373.8 crore for Yes Bank for 2016-17 against the declared gross NPAs of Rs 2,018 crore. Thus, there was a divergence of Rs 6,355 crore or three times the reported amount.

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