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States set to miss 20 per cent debt-to-GDP ratio target by FY23: Report

Press Trust of India

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Mumbai: Though the Centre may manage to achieve the debt-to-GDP ratio target of 40 per cent by FY23, the states achieving the 20 per cent target looks difficult as most of them have not budgeted so far, warned a report.
The states’ aggregate debt-to-GDP ratio for FY19 has been budgeted at 24.3 per cent and according to their FY19 budgets, only 10 of the 20 states will have debt-to-GSDP ratio of under 25 per cent in FY19, noted the report by India Ratings’ chief economist, DK Pant. The NK Singh committee, which is reviewing the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act of 2003, has suggested that the fiscal policy try to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 per cent by FY23, with the Centre’s at 40 per cent and the states’ combined at 20 per cent, instead of improving the revenue to fiscal deficit ratio.
Eight states namely Himachal, Jammu & Kashmir, Kerala, Manipur, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Punjab and Rajasthan had debt-to-GSDP ratios in excess of 30 per cent in FY18, suggesting that the aggregate debt-to-GDP ratio needs to be corrected by 8.92 percentage points between FY18 and FY23, Pant noted.
Although there have been instances of debt-to-GDP ratio declining by over three percentage points in a single year and by over 11 per cent for six years at a go, all these periods were characterised by an average minimum nominal GDP growth of about 14 per cent per annum and average aggregate revenue receipt-to-GDP ratio of around 20 per cent, according to him.
Though the aggregate revenue receipt-to-GDP ratio has been budgeted at 22 per cent for FY19, Pant said achieving a nominal GDP growth of about 14 per cent looks difficult. Sustainability of debt-to-GDP ratio relies on the primary balance-to-GDP and the rate spread (excess of nominal growth over average interest rate on debt).
India Ratings said during FY90-FY18, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio witnessed five phases: During FY90-FY92, it rose to 72.89 per cent from 70.06; while during FY93-FY97, it declined to 64.37 per cent from 72.01; to rise again to 83.23 per cent from 66.29 during FY98-FY04. During FY05-FY11, it again declined to 65.60 per cent from 82.13, while it remained range bound at 66.58-68.92 per cent during FY12-FY18.
During the past five years, while revenue-to-GDP, interest-to-revenue, debt-to-revenue and positive rate spread trends were favourable for debt sustainability, rising interest payment/GDP, continuous primary deficit/GDP proved to be a negative, the note said. From a global perspective, the country remains an outlier in terms of both consolidated debt-to-GDP and debt-to-revenue ratios.
While the median value of the consolidated debt-to-GDP ‘BBB’ countries was 37.8 per cent in 2017, for India it was a high 69 per cent. But European countries like Italy had a higher ratio at 131.8 per cent and Portugal’s stood at 125.7 per cent, according to the rating agency.


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India to get extra oil from major producers to make up for loss of Iranian oil: Pradhan

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New Delhi: India will get additional supplies from other major oil producing countries to compensate for the loss of Iranian oil, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said.

The United States on Monday demanded that buyers of Iranian oil stop purchases by May 1 or face sanctions, ending six months of waivers which had allowed Iran`s eight biggest buyers, most of them in Asia, to continue to import limited volumes.

Pradhan said on Twitter that India has put in place a robust plan for adequate supply of crude oil to refineries.

 

“Indian refineries are fully prepared to meet the national demand for petrol, diesel and other petroleum products,” he said.

Reuters last week reported that Indian refiners are increasing their planned purchases from the nations of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Mexico and the United States to hedge against loss of Iranian oil.

Refiners in India, the worlds third-biggest oil importer and Irans top oil client after China, had almost halved their Iranian oil purchases since November when petroleum sanctions went into effect. At the time, the United States granted waivers from sanctions, known as significant reduction exceptions (SRE), for six months to countries that purchased some amounts of Iranian crude, including India.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations could “more than make up” for any drop in Iranian oil supplies to global markets now that the waivers are ended.

Saudi Arabia, the world`s biggest oil exporter, said on Monday it would coordinate with other oil producers to ensure an adequate crude supply and a balanced market.

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Industry delegation calls on RBI Guv, discusses steps for MSMEs, NBFCs

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Mumbai: A delegation led by PHD Chamber President Rajeev Talwar met RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das here on Monday and discussed concerns related to the growth of MSMEs, NBFCs, affordable housing and the real estate sector.

The chamber in its submission has also sought further cut in the repo rate in the coming quarters.

“PHD Chamber in its submission has urged RBI to increase the limit for classifying over dues of MSMEs to 180 days from the current level of 90 days as working capital cycle of MSMEs keeps prolonging due to delays in realisation of their bills/receivables,” said Talwar.

 

It has also requested that at least one year period should be considered for eligibility of MSMEs’ stressed and NPA accounts under the restructuring scheme.

All such Accounts which turned into defaulters or became NPAs after January 1, 2018 should be covered under the policy of RBI for being eligible for restructuring, said Sanjay Agarwal, Vice President, PHD Chamber.

It was also recommended that the loans given by banks to NBFCs for the purpose of on-lending to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) should be treated as indirect finance to MSMEs eligible for classification under the Priority Sector lending of banks, said D K Agrawal, Senior Vice-President.

The industry body said that infrastructure financing should ideally be carried out by specialist players like Infrastructure Finance Companies (IFCs).

“IFCs should be allowed to deploy a minimum of 50 per cent of their total assets in infrastructure loans, while the rest may be deployed towards financing allied and ancillary activities for infrastructure projects, which are essentially non-infra in nature,” PHD Chamber said.

The chamber said that IFCs should be allowed to issue tax-free bonds and on-tap resource mobilisation through issuance of Non-Convertible Debentures (NCDs) to retail investors.

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Jet Airways waits for buyer as rivals muscle in on territory

Agencies

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Mumbai: A revival of Jet Airways India Ltd., once the nation’s biggest carrier by market value, is at risk as days roll by since its operations were completely halted.

While the cash-strapped carrier awaits potential investors to pump in money, rivals are aggressively going after its most prized assets. A government desperate to limit public backlash after flight ticket prices escalated is parceling off landing and parking slots at congested airports. Lessors are also adding to the woes by allocating grounded aircraft to competitors.

“It appears to me that lenders are not very confident of getting any serious bid,” said Harsh Vardhan, chairman of New Delhi-based Starair Consulting. “You can not hold on to slots, and planes are not Jet Airways’ property. They have to find a buyer as soon as possible.”

 

Jet Airways, the oldest surviving private airline which broke into a monopoly of Air India Ltd., had a fleet of 124 and flew profitable routes like connecting India, the fastest growing aviation market in the world, with London and Toronto. With nearly 23,000 jobs at stake, its collapse last week couldn’t have at worse time for Prime Minister Narendra Modi who’s seeking a second term based on his business-friendly image.

While the arrangement to give Jet’s landing slots and aircraft to rivals is temporary, the process to swap them again is complicated and is the domain of airports. It may get more difficult once rivals start new flights and sell tickets in advance, and that could potentially leave close to nothing for a potential new owner.

Jet Airways started flying in the early-1990s after India liberalized its economy, and quickly cemented its spot as a leading airline offering an alternative to Air India, while averting several downturns that forced dozens of its peers to close shop. But a boom of budget airlines in the mid 2000s, on top on rising fuel prices and a weakening rupee, kept adding to Jet Airways’ costs in the notoriously price-sensitive market.

The airline, which controlled 13.6 percent of the local market as recently as January, needs 85 billion rupees ($1.2 billion) to restart operations. So far, it isn’t clear whether Jet Airways will find a buyer to fly again, or if lenders will take it to a bankruptcy court. Over the weekend, local media reported Mukesh Ambani, Asia’s richest man, and salt-to-software conglomerate Tata Group are keen to pick up a stake or purchase Jet’s assets.

Shares of Jet Airways gained as much as 9.2 percent to 168.95 rupees in Mumbai and were trading at 167.35 rupees as of 11:06 a.m. local time. The shares plummeted 36 percent in the previous two trading sessions, after all flights were grounded last week.

Local carriers have been quick to take advantage of the situation. SpiceJet Ltd. plans to induct more than a dozen Boeing Co. 737 planes, offering flights on the routes previously operated by Jet Airways. Market leader IndiGo, operated by InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. has also added additional flights from New Delhi and Mumbai, the two busiest airports of the nation which hardly had any landing slots available when Jet Airways was operating.

Ambani, who controls Reliance Industries Ltd., may partner Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways PJSC to pick up a stake in Jet Airways, while also exploring a possible bailout of state-run Air India Ltd, the Indian Express newspaper reported over the weekend. Etihad, which already owns 24 percent of the Jet Airways, has put in an initial bid showing interest in purchasing a stake in the carrier, the newspaper said.

The Tata Group may jump into the fray if the sale process fails, and bankruptcy proceedings kick in, the Mint newspaper reported separately, citing two unidentified people. The government reached out to the group, which has a majority stake in two local airlines, last year to potentially bail out the airline but it did not materialize into a deal.

A Reliance spokesman declined to comment but said the company evaluates various opportunities on an ongoing basis. A Tata group representative also declined to comment.

With lessors taking over aircraft and slots going to rivals, the value of Jet Airways has eroded, said Mark Martin, founder of Dubai-based Martin Consulting.

“The lenders should have paid some money to lessors and urged them not to take over the aircraft while the sale process is on, and should have finalized a payment plan for past dues over the next 18 months, Martin said. “But they did not, and that’s really unfortunate.”

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