Poll says politics, monetary policy easing to hurt rupee, may cross 70/$

BENGALURU : The currency is not expected to get support from the RBI as it prepares for further policy easing in response to tepid retail inflation and a slowdown in economic growth.

India’s rupee is expected to reverse recent gains and weaken over the coming year, hurt by monetary policy easing, but the outcome of the national election is also likely to be key driver of its direction, a Reuters poll found.

The rupee was the worst performing Asian currency last year but gained over 2 percent in March despite the Reserve Bank of India easing policy in February and expectations for it to do so again .

However, those gains are expected to be short-lived amid rising uncertainty around the national election and other factors such as a steady increase in oil prices and a slowdown in economic growth, dampening the currency’s outlook.

In the latest survey of nearly 50 strategists, taken April 1-3, the rupee was forecast to weaken about 3 percent over the next year to 70.38 per dollar from around 68.45 on Wednesday.

“The coming general elections carry a near-term risk for the currency, especially if results are contrary to what markets expect,” noted Rini Sen, FX strategist at ANZ.

“However, a comprehensive party or a coalition victory could add to the rupee’s upside, in line with its performance during past election cycles. We are mindful of the rupee’s stretched valuations, as well, which will likely deteriorate further given recent currency strength.”

The currency is not expected to get support from the RBI as it prepares for further policy easing in response to tepid retail inflation and a slowdown in economic growth.

“RBI policy hasn’t been friendly for the INR since last year.. Now they are taking advantage of the positive emerging market sentiment and cutting rates as the government wants the RBI to do and a rate cut is not friendly for the currency,” said Prakash Sakpal, Asia economist at ING.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by The Kashmir Monitor staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)