New Delhi : Minutes before the back series of gross domestic product (GDP) for the base year 2011-12 was to be released, the NITI Aayog and the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Monday decided to “defer” it. The decision was taken at a meeting between the two along with economists.
“During the discussion, experts sought analytical information, which is being worked out. It was, therefore, decided to have a follow-up round-table discussion with experts soon,” said Anna Roy, advisor for data management and analysis at the NITI Aayog said. The release of the data could have put to rest all speculations that rose after the National Statistical Commission (NSC) came out with its recommendations on the back series data, which showed two years of double-digit growth in the UPA regime.
Sources in government said it was cautious about the data since it pertains to economic growth during previous governments. In addition, they said MoSPI officials were unable to answer queries raised by experts.
“The experts said a better understanding of the back series at the disaggregated levels was needed. In addition, the series needs to be substantiated with pertinent data used to formulate it, such as interest rates of previous years, which needs to be obtained from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The process would be complete in the next two weeks,” said a senior official. Questions were raised on the methodology, the econometric model and the assumptions made to arrive at the values for previous years. But officials present at the meeting said this was merely a “technical deferral”. Formulating a back series requires several assumptions that have to be substantiated with pertinent data, the officials said.
“Back series formulation is a research exercise involving a multitude of approximations. Whenever there is a considerable divergence between the back series (Base: 2011-12) and the old series (Base: 2004-05), the reasons for it must be clear,” one of the experts present at the consultation said. The CSO is using a variety of data sets for the purpose of creating the back series, including data from MCA-21 — the Ministry of Corporate Affairs data set, Annual Survey of Industries, and the Centre for Monitoring of Indian Economy.
In addition to Chief Statistician Pravin Srivastava, former CSI T C A Anant, former chairman of National Statistical Commission (NSC) R B Barman, former NSC member Manoj Kumar Panda, and Biswanath Goldar, economics professor at the Institute of Economic Growth were some of the experts invited by the NITI Aayog. The meeting was facilitated by Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar. The Sudipto Mundle committee on real sector statistics in its report to the NSC in July had devised a back series for the base year 2011-12. This report had created a political storm, since with the new base GDP growth in two of the years under the previous government crossed the 10 per cent mark.
The Mundle report had mentioned that CSO had already formulated ‘tentative’ estimates for the official back series using a variety of data sets. These tentative estimates were sent to the Advisory Committee of National Accounts Statistics for deliberation. These were then finalised, after which the parent ministry MoSPI, in consultation with NITI Aayog, decided to release the data.
Sensex sheds 298.82 to close at 38,811; Nifty shrinks to 11,650
Mumbai: The benchmark BSE Sensex erased early gains to end 299 points lower Thursday as investors booked profits after stocks soared to record highs after BJP’s strong showing in the Lok Sabha polls.
Sensex and NSE Nifty went on to record highs even as Lok Sabha election results showed that PM Modi-led NDA leading on over 300 seats. However after the euphoria during the morning session, Sensex shed 298.82 to close at 38,811 and Nifty shrank to 11,650 on the closing bell.
During the day, the Sensex hit the 40,000 mark while the Nifty crossed the 12,000-level for the first time ever. However, the indices succumbed to profit booking towards the fag-end of the session.
The 30-share Sensex tumbled 298.82 points, or 0.76 per cent, to close at 38,811.39. Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty settled 80.85 points, or 0.69 per cent, lower at 11,657.05.
IndusInd Bank was the biggest gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying 5.23 per cent, followed by Hero MotoCorp, Coal India, Yes Bank, PowerGrid, ICICI Bank, HCL Tech, L&T, Kotak Bank and Bharti Airtel, rising up to 1.56 per cent. On the other hand, Vedanta, ITC, Tata Motors, HDFC twins, Bajaj Finance, Sun Pharma, Tata Steel, TCS, ONGC and Infosys fell up to 5.53 per cent.
Riding on a massive Modi wave sweeping through most parts of India, the BJP was set to return to power Thursday as it led in 298 seats while the Congress trailed far behind with 52, according to trends released by the Election Commission for all 542 seats that went to polls.
“Markets were initially enthused to see the election results falling in line with the exit polls. However, the run up to the D-day was so sharp that it turned out to be a sell on news phenomenon,” said Devang Mehta, Head – Equity Advisory, Centrum Wealth Management.
Participants would now be keen to know the future course of action for bringing the economy back on track, solution to the liquidity situation, the union budget, onset and progress of monsoon in June and most importantly the earnings trajectory, he added.
According to traders, weak cues from other global markets and a depreciating rupee also weighed on investor sentiment. The rupee depreciated 37 paise to 70.04 against the US dollar in afternoon trade. Globally, bourses in Asia ended in the red.
Indices in Europe were also trading on a negative note in early deals. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 1.79 per cent lower at USD 69.72 per barrel.
Silver up on increased offtake; gold steady
New Delhi: Silver prices rallied by Rs 200 to Rs 37,400 per kg in the national capital on Thursday, while gold held steady, according to the All India Sarafa Association.
Traders said silver prices rose on pick-up in offtake by industrial units and coin makers at the local spot market. Globally, spot gold was trading marginally higher at USD 1,276 an ounce, while silver was slightly up at USD 14.53 an ounce in New York.
In the national capital, gold of 99.9 per cent and 99.5 per cent purity dropped by Rs 10 each to Rs 32,670 per ten 10 gram and Rs 32,500 per 10 gram. Sovereign gold, however, held steady at Rs 26,500 per eight gram.
Silver ready surged Rs 200 to Rs 37,400 per kg, while weekly-based delivery fell by Rs 66 to Rs 36,234 per kg. Silver coins held flat at Rs 79,000 for buying and Rs 80,000 for selling of 100 pieces.
India PC mkt declines 8.3 per cent to 2.15 mn units in Jan-Mar qarter
New Delhi: Personal Computer (PC) shipment in India fell by 8.3 per cent in the January-March quarter of 2019 to 2.15 million units, registering a year-on-year decline for the third consecutive quarter, according to research firm International Data Corporation (IDC).
Besides, big commercial deals, market remained weak due to weak consumer demand, high inventory from previous quarters, and supply issues for Intel chips.
Shipments in the consumer segment saw a 26.5 per cent dip in the said quarter compared to the year-ago period. The commercial PC market saw a total shipment of 1.35 million units in the said quarter, a growth of 7.3 per cent over last year.
“The announcement of central elections on March 10, 2019 resulted in the model code of conduct coming into immediate effect further resulting in a delay in execution of government projects and impacting the commercial segment,” IDC said in a statement.
However, IDC expects the overall PC market in India to witness a growth in the second quarter. The commercial market is expected to pick up post new government formation in May, while the consumer market is expected to pick up largely driven by back to school campaign by vendors and online sales.
HP maintained its leadership position with an overall market share of 28.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2019, followed by Dell (25.9 per cent), Lenovo (25.2 per cent) and Acer (11.7 per cent).
The notebook PC (laptop) category accounted for 61.4 per cent of the shipment and witnessed a 9.8 per cent year-on-year decline.
On phone call, Imran Khan congratulates PM Modi on election victory
Islamabad: Breaking the ice in bilateral ties, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan on Sunday spoke to his Indian counterpart Narendra...
Pak ready to hold talks with new Indian govt: Foreign Minister Qureshi
Islamabad, May 26: Pakistan is ready to hold talks with the new Indian government to resolve all outstanding issues, Foreign...
Train services resume in Kashmir after two days
Srinagar, May 26: Train services resumed on Sunday after remaining suspended for two days for security reasons in the Kashmir...
Only Kashmir bound stranded vehicles to ply on Srinagar-Jammu highway
SRINAGAR: No fresh vehicle will be allowed on Srinagar-Jammu national highway on Sunday before all Kashmir bound several thousand stranded...
Teenager injured in cross-LoC firing in Rajouri
Jammu: A teenager was injured Sunday in small arms firing by the Pakistan Army along the Line of Control (LoC)...