Climate change: Cloudbursts, flashfloods surge in Kashmir

Srinagar: Call it the climate change effect, the frequency of cloudbursts and flashfloods has shown an increase in Jammu and Kashmir.

Extreme events are occurrences of unusually severe weather or climate conditions that can cause devastating impacts on communities and agricultural and natural ecosystems. Weather-related extreme events are often short-lived and include heat waves, freezes, heavy downpours, cloud bursts, and flash floods.

According to official figures of the Meteorological Department, Jammu and Kashmir has recorded around 168 extreme weather events including cloudbursts and flash floods from 2010 to 2022. Figures showed that six events of cloud bursts and flash floods were reported in 2023 so far.

The latest tragedy unfolded when four persons including a newly wedded couple were killed in cloudburst and lightning strike incidents at two different places in Kashmir on May 6. Similarly, a massive cloudburst led to flash floods in Kulgam district on May 3.

Dr Irfan Rashid, Assistant Professor, Department Geoinformatics, University of Kashmir, explained that the frequency of adverse climate events like cloudbursts and flash floods has increased in J&K albeit there is little research to characterize these disasters.

“This is a loud indicator of the change in the climate of the region. Owing to its topography, Jammu & Kashmir is more prone to such extreme weather events,” he said.

Rashid noted that although there is no research backing, the union territory, which is part of the larger Himalayan arc, experiences two types of atmospheric circulation patterns-western disturbances and Indian summer monsoons.

“A change in any of these two patterns will affect the incidence of these adverse weather events. Additionally, the massive land system changes over the past five decades combined with depleting snowfall and glacier cover might have changed the energy budget forcing these erratic and extreme weather events, however, these need to be investigated further,” he said.

Deputy Director, MET, Kashmir, Dr. Mukhtar Ahmad said intense localized convection/heating, atmospheric instability, and moisture supply are some of the factors which are mainly attributed to cloud bursts/microbursts/intense heavy rainfall over a localized area/location.

“Population growth leads to deforestation. Deforestation is an anthropogenic cause of climate change,” Ahmad said.

In May 2021, the World Meteorological Organization noted that there is about a 40% chance of the annual average global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level in at least one of the next five years.

It added that there is a 90% likelihood of at least one year between 2021 and 2025 becoming the warmest on record and dislodging 2016 from the top rank.

It is seen that more cloudbursts are happening in the Himalayan region because the decadal temperature rise in the Himalayan region is higher than the global rate of rising temperatures.