New Delhi: India’s current account deficit is likely to rise to 3 percent of GDP in the July-September quarter of current fiscal, from 2.4 percent in the preceding quarter, driven mainly by high crude oil prices, ICRA said.
ICRA expects the current account deficit to widen sharply to USD 19-21 billion or 3 percent of GDP in Q2 (July-September) FY2019, from the modest USD 7 billion in Q2 FY2018, led by higher crude oil prices and gold imports, the credit rating agency said in a statement.
“CAD would widen to USD 68-73 billion (2.6 percent of GDP) in FY 2019 from USD 48.7 billion in FY2018 (1.9 percent of GDP), if the price of the Indian basket of crude oil averages at USD 72/barrel in FY2019,” ICRA Principal Economist Aditi Nayar said.
The CAD, which is the difference between the inflow and outflow of foreign currency, stood at 1.9 percent of GDP in 2017-18 fiscal and 0.6 percent of GDP in 2016-17.
The agency however noted that the subsequent correction in crude oil prices has eased concerns regarding the size of the current account deficit in October-March period of current fiscal.
Brent crude futures which was trading around 80 dollar to a barrel in September, has fallen to around 62 dollar a barrel.
“The recent correction in crude oil prices has doused concerns regarding the size of India’s current account deficit in H2 (October-March) FY2019. Moreover, a seasonal uptrend in exports should help moderate the current account deficit in H2 FY2019 relative to H1 FY2019,” Nayar added.
Following the year-on-year surge in crude oil prices, India’s net import bill related to petroleum, crude and crude related products increased by a sharp 60 percent to USD 23 billion in September quarter this fiscal, from USD 14 billion in the same period last fiscal.
Additionally, gold imports rose by 61 percent to USD 9 billion in the September quarter, from USD 6 billion in the year-ago period.
These two item groups account for around 80 percent of the rise in India’s merchandise trade deficit in the second quarter of the fiscal, relative to the year-ago quarter, ICRA said.
Growth likely to reach 7.5% next fiscal: CEA
New Delhi: The economic growth is likely to accelerate to 7.5 percent in 2019-20, from 7.2 percent projected for the current fiscal, Chief Economic Adviser K V Subramanian has said.
“We have done the projections. All the external agencies and internally our estimates are also 7.5 percent (2019-20). The nominal rate we are expecting is 11.5 percent and inflation of about 4 percent,” he told PTI.
The Reserve Bank of India, in its latest monetary policy review released last week, too projected an economic growth rate of 7.4 percent for the next fiscal.
Talking about average growth in the last four years, he said the GDP growth rate has been 7.3 percent, highest across all government since liberalisation. This growth rate has been achieved amidst very low inflation.
Prior to 2014, the average inflation was in excess of 10 percent, he said, adding the significant reduction in inflation can be attributed to setting up of Monetary Policy framework that mandates the RBI to keep it within a particular band.
Monetary Policy Committee, the interest rate setting body headed by the RBI Governor, has been given objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4 percent within a band of +/- 2 percent, while supporting growth.
Earlier this month, Finance Minister Piyush Goyal in the Budget Speech had said that India is solidly back on track and marching towards growth and prosperity.
The past five years have seen India being universally recognised as a bright spot of the global economy, he said, adding that the country witnessed its best phase of macro-economic stability during this period.
“We are the fastest growing major economy in the world with an annual average GDP growth during last five years higher than the growth achieved by any government since economic reforms began in 1991,” he had said.
On fiscal deficit, Subramanian said, it has been secularly coming down and India is on the glide path to achieving the target set under the FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management) Act.
“This fiscal prudence has been achieved despite greater devolution to states. So as part to 14th Finance Commission, 42 percent is devolved to states from earlier 32 percent,” he said.
The Budget pegs fiscal deficit to be at 3.4 percent of the GDP for 2019-20.
Jet Airways plans to raise about Rs 2,500 crore through rights issue
Mumbai: Cash-starved Jet Airways plans to raise about Rs 2,500 crore through a rights issue. Its lenders are also looking at a debt-to-equity conversion.
While lenders may convert Rs 1,000 crore of debt into equity, they will also participate in the equity infusion through a rights issue as part of the deal.
Additionally, promoter Naresh Goyal and Etihad Airways, which owns a 24 per cent stake in the airline, will infuse around Rs 2,000 crore into the airline, sources aware of the development said.
Lenders are expected to participate in a rights issue to raise capital. Government-owned infrastructure fund National Infrastructure Investment Fund (NIIF) is likely to buy a 19 per cent stake for Rs 1,500 crore. Along with the NIIF, banks will own a 51 per cent stake in the company.
The NIIF was approached by lenders after Etihad Airways refused to increase its stake beyond 25 per cent without an exemption from open offer. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) did not agree to the idea. NIIF Chief Executive Officer Sujoy Bose did not respond to multiple queries about the matter.
Sources said Etihad Airways would infuse around Rs 1,450 crore to maintain its stake at 24 per cent, promoter Naresh Goyal would bring in Rs 550 crore to hold around 21 to 22 per cent.
Goyal has already infused Rs 250 crore into the airline.
“At the first stage of the resolution plan, lenders have agreed to convert around Rs 1,000 crore of debt into equity. In the second stage, there will be a rights issue of around Rs 2,500 crore in which banks will participate. This process is subject to approval from the promoter, lenders and Etihad Airways. It may take around two months to close,” said an official of a state-owned lender.
Another source said the SBI-led consortium would release around Rs 550 crore in the next 15 days to bridge the immediate funding gap.
He said: “The draft resolution plan has been approved by the Jet board and needs approval of the boards of banks and Etihad. Besides, the approval of various regulatory authorities is also required. This would take a few months. There is an interim funding requirement of Rs 500-1,000 crore. Banks will make an assessment and lend the fund against security”.
The airline has a funding gap of Rs 8,500 crore. “There will be equity infusion, sale or sale and leaseback, debt-to-equity conversion, and refinancing of aircraft. A combination of all these will help to reduce the debt of the company. But, I will be unable to give you the numbers right now,” said Amit Agarwal, chief financial officer at Jet Airways.
The company’s board approved a draft resolution plan, which comprises conversion of debt into 110.4 million shares.
Jet had a gross debt of Rs 7,654 crore as of December-end, comprising aircraft loans worth Rs 1,700 crore. About 60 per cent of the loans are dollar denominated. Jet has called an extraordinary general meeting next week to secure shareholders’ nod for the issue of 110.4 million shares to lenders.
RBI threatens action against Yes Bank for disclosing nil divergence report
New Delhi: The Reserve Bank has warned Yes Bank of regulatory action for disclosure of nil divergence report in violation of the confidentiality clause, the private sector lender said.
Yes Bank in a press release earlier this week had said the RBI has not found any divergence in the asset classification and provisioning done by the lender during 2017-18.
In a regulatory filing , Yes Bank said it has received a letter from the RBI which noted that the Risk Assessment Report (RAR) was marked ‘confidential’ and it was expected that no part of the report be divulged except for the information in the form and manner of disclosure prescribed by regulations.
“Therefore, the press release breaches confidentiality and violates regulatory guidelines. Moreover, NIL divergence is not an achievement to be published and is only compliance with the extant Income Recognition and Asset Classification norms,” the RBI said in its letter.
“The issuance of the Press Release has, therefore, been viewed seriously by the RBI and could entail further regulatory action/s,” the letter added.
The RAR also identifies several other lapses and regulatory breaches in various areas of the bank’s functioning and the disclosure of just one part of the RAR is viewed by RBI as a deliberate attempt to mislead the public, the central bank said.
The RBI conducted its first asset quality review (AQR) of banks in 2015 in order to find corporate loan accounts with severe financial weakness which were still classified as standard accounts on the books of the lenders.
Post this review, RBI found a large divergence of Rs 4,176 crore in the reported gross NPAs in the books of Yes Bank for 2015-16.
Further, the RBI judged gross NPAs at Rs 8,373.8 crore for Yes Bank for 2016-17 against the declared gross NPAs of Rs 2,018 crore. Thus, there was a divergence of Rs 6,355 crore or three times the reported amount.