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You have 12 years to save Earth, yourself

Global temperature will cross 1.5°C threshold by 2030; catastrophe to be expected afterwards

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Incheon (South Korea): Limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society and the world only has 12 years to achieve it, a UN report on climate change said on Monday.

The authors of the landmark report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have warned that even half a degree beyond 1.5°C will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat and poverty for hundreds of millions of people.

The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C was approved by the IPCC on Saturday in Incheon, Republic of Korea.

It will be a key scientific input into the Katowice Climate Change Conference in Poland in December, when world governments review the Paris Agreement to tackle climate change.

“With more than 6,000 scientific references cited and the dedicated contribution of thousands of expert and government reviewers worldwide, this important report testifies to the breadth and policy relevance of the IPCC,” said Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC in an official online press release on Monday, a copy of which was accessed by The Kashmir Monitor.

Ninety-one authors and review editors from 40 countries prepared the IPCC report in response to an invitation from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) when it adopted the Paris Agreement in 2015.

“One of the key messages that comes out very strongly from this report is that we are already seeing the consequences of 1°C of global warming through more extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice, among other changes,” said Panmao Zhai, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group I.

The report highlights a number of climate change impacts that could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to 2°C, or more.

The report finds that limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require “rapid and far-reaching” transitions in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport, and cities.

“Global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) would need to fall by about 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching ‘net zero’ around 2050. This means that any remaining emissions would need to be balanced by removing CO2 from the air,” says the report.

“Limiting warming to 1.5ºC is possible within the laws of chemistry and physics but doing so would require unprecedented changes,” said Jim Skea, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group III.

For instance, by 2100, global sea level rise would be 10 cm lower with global warming of 1.5C compared with 2C. The likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once per century with global warming of 1.5°C, compared with at least once per decade with 2C.

Coral reefs would decline by 70-90 percent with global warming of 1.5°C, whereas virtually all would be lost with 2C.

“Every extra bit of warming matters, especially since warming of 1.5C or higher increases the risk associated with long-lasting or irreversible changes, such as the loss of some ecosystems,” said Hans-Otto Pörtner, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II.

Limiting global warming would also give people and ecosystems more room to adapt and remain below relevant risk thresholds, added Pörtner. The report also examines pathways available to limit warming to 1.5ºC, what it would take to achieve them and what the consequences could be.

The world is currently 1°C warmer than preindustrial levels. Following devastating hurricanes in the US, record droughts in Cape Town and forest fires in the Arctic, the IPCC makes clear that climate change is already happening, upgraded its risk warning from previous reports, and warned that every fraction of additional warming would worsen the impact.

At 1.5C the proportion of the global population exposed to water stress could be 50% lower than at 2C, it notes. Food scarcity would be less of a problem and hundreds of millions fewer people, particularly in poor countries, would be at risk of climate-related poverty.

At 2°C extremely hot days, such as those experienced in the northern hemisphere this summer, would become more severe and common, increasing heat-related deaths and causing more forest fires.

But the greatest difference would be to nature. Insects, which are vital for pollination of crops, and plants are almost twice as likely to lose half their habitat at 2C compared with 1.5C. Corals would be 99% lost at the higher of the two temperatures, but more than 10% have a chance of surviving if the lower target is reached.

Sea-level rise would affect 10 million more people by 2100 if the half-degree extra warming brought a forecast 10cm additional pressure on coastlines. The number affected would increase substantially in the following centuries due to locked-in ice melt.

Oceans are already suffering from elevated acidity and lower levels of oxygen as a result of climate change. One model shows marine fisheries would lose 3m tonnes at 2C, twice the decline at 1.5C.

Sea ice-free summers in the Arctic, which is warming two to three times fast than the world average, would come once every 100 years at 1.5C, but every 10 years with half a degree more of global warming.

Time and carbon budgets are running out. By mid-century, a shift to the lower goal would require a supercharged roll-back of emissions sources that have built up over the past 250 years.

The IPCC maps out four pathways to achieve 1.5C, with different combinations of land use and technological change. Reforestation is essential to all of them as are shifts to electric transport systems and greater adoption of carbon capture technology.

Carbon pollution would have to be cut by 45% by 2030 – compared with a 20% cut under the 2C pathway – and come down to zero by 2050, compared with 2075 for 2C. This would require carbon prices that are three to four times higher than for a 2C target. But the costs of doing nothing would be far higher.

“We have presented governments with pretty hard choices. We have pointed out the enormous benefits of keeping to 1.5C, and also the unprecedented shift in energy systems and transport that would be needed to achieve that,” said Jim Skea, a co-chair of the working group on mitigation.

“We show it can be done within laws of physics and chemistry. Then the final tick box is political will. We cannot answer that. Only our audience can – and that is the governments that receive it.”

He said the main finding of his group was the need for urgency. Although unexpectedly good progress has been made in the adoption of renewable energy, deforestation for agriculture was turning a natural carbon sink into a source of emissions. Carbon capture and storage projects, which are essential for reducing emissions in the concrete and waste disposal industries, have also ground to a halt.

Reversing these trends is essential if the world has any chance of reaching 1.5C without relying on the untried technology of solar radiation modification and other forms of geo-engineering, which could have negative consequences.

In the run-up to the final week of negotiations, there were fears the text of the report would be watered down by the US, Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich countries that are reluctant to consider more ambitious cuts. The authors said nothing of substance was cut from a text.

The report will be presented to governments at the UN climate conference in Poland at the end of this year. But analysts say there is much work to be done, with even pro-Paris deal nations involved in fossil fuel extraction that runs against the spirit of their commitments. Britain is pushing ahead with gas fracking, Norway with oil exploration in the Arctic, and the German government wants to tear down Hambach forest to dig for coal.

At the current level of commitments, the world is on course for a disastrous 3C of warming. The report authors are refusing to accept defeat, believing the increasingly visible damage caused by climate change will shift opinion their way.


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Kulgam killings: Kashmir shuts in mourning

Mubashir Bukhari

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Srinagar, Oct 22:A complete shutdown was Monday observed across the Valley to mourn the death of seven civilians who died in an explosion near gunfight site in South Kashmir’s Kulgam district on Sunday.

The shutdown call was given by Joint Hurriyat Leadership comprising Syed Ali Geelani, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq and Muhammad Yasin Malik, appealing people to observe shutdown on Monday and observe sit in protest on Tuesday at Lal Chowk.

In view of the shutdown, the district administration Srinagar had imposed restrictions in parts of Srinagar to thwart any protest against the Kulgam killings.

Shops and business establishments were closed while schools colleges and other educational institutions remained shut. Transport both public and private was largely off the roads and train service in Kashmir was suspended by the railway authorities.

Witnesses said that the heavy deployment of forces was deployed in the roads to ensure peaceful situation throughout the day.

The day also witnessed the funeral of Javid Ahmad Lone, the seventh civilian killed in Kulgam, who was buried amid heavy sloganeering at Hawoora, his native village in south Kashmir’s Kulgam district.

Javid was identified late on Sunday and his body remained in the mortuary for several hours before his family identified him.

Pertinent to mention that the authorities not only blocked internet, a usual trend, they also snapped mobile phones leading to chaos and information blockade.

Reports said that thousands of people attended Javid’s funeral early on Monday. He was taken in a procession towards graveyard amid pro-freedom slogans. Later, Javid was laid to rest amid sobs and tears.

People of Kulgam buried their six loved ones yesterday and they include Auqib Ahmad Sheikh (18) son of Gulzar Ahmad Sheikh of DanowMacanpora, Kulgam, Uzair Ahmad Dar (8th standard student) son of Mushtaq Ahmad Dar of Nayakpora near Kulgam Town, Irshad Ahmad Paddar son of SayedullahPaddar of Shurat Kulgam, Mansoor Ahmad Dar Son of Ghulam Mohammad Dar of Bogund Kulgam, Talib Ahmad Laway son of Mohammad Maqbool of Laroo and Mukeen Ahmad Bhat of Laroo.

While seven persons were killed more than 40 civilians were injured either due to blast near encounter site or use of force including pellets and bullets by government forces. Among the injured, three seriously wounded were referred from Anantnag district hospital and four from Kulgam hospital to SMHS and SKIMS hospitals here for advanced treatment.

The mayhem as has been described by people on both sides of the political spectrum started soon after government forces launched a cordon-and-search operation at Laroo village.

An encounter ensued between a joint team of forces and militants, leading to the killing of three Jaish-e-Mohammad cadres including Shahid Ahmad Tantary of Wangam Shopian, Zubair Ahmad Lone of Ahwatoo Kulgam and  Yazil Ahmad Makroo of Arwani Bijbehara.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Pak PM condemns killings, calls for resolution of K-issue

Agencies

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Islamabad, Oct 22: Pakistan Prime Minister, Imran Khan on Monday condemned the killings in Kashmir, saying that India must move to resolve the Kashmir issue through dialogue.

Khan in his tweet said India must resolve the issue in accordance with UNSC resolutions and also according to the wishes of Kashmiris.

“Strongly condemn the new cycle of killings of innocent Kashmiris in IOK by Indian security forces. It is time India realised it must move to resolve the Kashmir dispute through dialogue in accordance with the UN SC resolutions & the wishes of the Kashmiri people (sic),” Imran Khan tweeted.

Earlier on Sunday,ten persons including three militants and seven civilian were killed during the gunfight that raged between forces and militants in Kulgam district of south Kashmir.

The civilians as per police were killed due to a massive explosion that took place at the gunfight site.

 

 

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Hizb Commander Naikoo questions Pak’s limited support to Kashmir

‘Our boys are fighting with pistols and SLRs; Pak media doesn’t give us enough space’ 

Nisar Dharma

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Srinagar, Oct 22: In a purported audio message gone viral on social media in Kashmir, militant outfit Hizbul Mujahideen’s commander, Riyaz Naikoo, on Monday sought to remind the people of Pakistan about their “responsibility” in the ongoing “armed resistance” in the valley.

Naikoo, who took over after Sabzar Bhat was killed in May last year, questioned Pakistan’s politicians over their diplomatic support to the “Kashmir movement”.

“Any resistance movement has three dimensions: diplomatic, political, and armed. Diplomatically, only Pakistan can support us, but unfortunately the politicians there have kept the Kashmir issue limited to elections only. It is your responsibility to pass on this message to them and to wake up their conscience,” Naikoo could be heard saying in the unconfirmed 17-minute message.

Naikoo said the militants “biggest problem” was “the lack of weapons”.

“AK47, which was used in 1990s by the militants, continues to be our weapon too. In fact, many of us do not possess that as well. In 1990s, militants used to carry five magazines, and today, the maximum we have is two or three,” he said, while explaining the weaponry the government forces carry in comparison.

Naikoo said when any of their colleagues gets killed in a gunfight, his parents ask them whether their son possessed enough arms to combat.

“We become speechless at that point in time,” he said. “Around 40 of our colleagues have attained martyrdom this year alone. You all shall know what we have received from the base camp. Our boys are fighting with mere pistols and SLRs,” he said.

“My aim is not to criticise you neither do I doubt your intentions. My goal is to awaken your emotions.”

“Feel the pain Kashmir suffers from.”

Naikoo, the audio message added, said that in comparison to how India and its “agencies” were using their diplomatic prowess to “defame and distort Kashmir movement”, Pakistan newspapers and its national media was “not giving” Kashmir issue enough space.

“Here (in Kashmir) we are not able to use social media freely and counter the lies and confusion perpetrated by our enemies. You could have done it easily there,” he said.

Naikoo claimed “our colleagues at the base camp” were in contact with many in Kashmir, many of whom work for “the agencies”.

“Our base camp colleagues trust them blindly and then bring them in contact with the militants in the field, consequences of which are faced by us. Besides, it also leads to our colleagues in the field thinking badly of the people at the base camp,” he said.

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