Uncertainty over government formation

Uncertainty looms large on government formation in Jammu and Kashmir. Though some circles claim that a new government of hotchpotch coalition is likely to be installed in the state any time by the end of October, there is no definite word on as who would lead the government. The speculations about the new government had strengthened after hints by dropped by some aspirants of chief ministerial post. However, the latest from the BJP point-man is that there is no possibility of government formation and the Governor’s rule will continue. Ram Madhav was recently in Srinagar and his latest statement is deemed as BJP’s failure to get required support for the government it wanted to install in Jammu and Kashmir. There are many a claimants/ aspirants of the chief minister’s post. Altaf Bukhari of PDP and Sajjad Lone of Peoples’ Conference (from Kashmir) are deemed as ‘front runners’. A section of PDP legislators are ready to break away from the party but they want their own party man to be the chief minister with Altaf Bukhari as their choice. BJP, however, is silently acting on a plan to get its own man installed as the chief minister.

Minister of state in Prime Minister’s Office, Dr Jitendra Raina is the BJP favourite. A BJP (Hindu) chief minister in a Muslim-majority state would be a big boost for the party ahead of next year’s general elections. For having failed to keep its election promises made in 2014, BJP is looking for some emotional issue to woo back the Indian voter. While five PDP MLAs who have rebelled against Mahbooba Mufti publicly are not averse to any chief minister from BJP, other “rebel” MLAs from the valley, however, have serious reservations. They believe that supporting BJP’s agenda of Hindu chief minister would cost them heavily. That is making the formation of the new government a difficult proposition. In disagreement between the BJP and PDP (rebel), the two-member party chief Sajjad Lone perceives a chance for himself. Sajjad’s dream of becoming the chief minister is for two reasons. First, no PDP or BJP MLA wants to go back to the electorate for fresh elections. Second, Governor’s rule for prolonged period too is not an option before New Delhi. In such a scenario, in his estimation, there is enough chance for him to emerge as alternate choice.

He is reported to have held meetings with several PDP MLAs and sought their help. Knowledgeable sources however reveal that BJP is not too keen to see Sajjad Lone as chief minister. But being their most trusted ally, the BJP leadership has told him that if he could manage support and get the required numbers, the party would support him. A strong lobby in the party believes that it would give rise to many questions for the party at national level. They say that ahead of next year’s general elections the BJP cannot afford any messy situation in Jammu and Kashmir. “If the state needed a chief minister from the valley only why Mahbooba was toppled then and the state was plunged into serious crisis” is a question that would be posed to the BJP even by its own cadres. BJP cadres think that there is a chance for their party to pitch for its own chief minister. But where are the numbers and wherefrom these will come is something that the party leaders have no answers. Mahbooba Mufti had, some time back, accused New Delhi of using NIA for breaking her party. That gives one the sense that BJP is working on influencing PDP legislators to get the required support.

Ram Madhav’s latest assertions that Governor’s rule will continue makes one to understand that BJP’s game-plan has seemingly gone to smithereens.