The border tension between India and Pakistan shows no signs of decline. On Tuesday, an Assistant Commandant of Border Security Force (BSF) was killed in a ‘sniper fire’ by Pakistan along the Line of Control (LoC) in Samba district of Jammu. Elsewhere, three BSF personnel and an army soldier were injured in separate incidents of firing along Rajouri and Kathua districts. Last week, Pakistan summoned Indian Acting deputy High Commissioner to lodge protest against “unprovoked” firing by Indian army in Shahkote sector which resulted in death of a woman. The number of ceasefire violations (CFVs) and the resultant casualties of soldiers and civilians on both sides along the Line of Control and the international border between India and Pakistan have seen a dramatic rise in the past five years.
Official records say that 2936 incidents cases of ceasefire violations took place, last year, the highest in the last 15 years, making mockery of the ceasefire agreement of 2003 between the two countries. For two years – 2004 and 2005–there was not a single such violation on the border. In 2006 just three incidents of CFVs took place while in 2007 and 08, there were 21 and 77 such incidents. There had been a gradual increase in ceasefire violations 2009 and 2013 with 28 in 2009, 44 in 2010, 62 in 2011, 114 in 2012 and 347 in 2013. After 2013, the CFVs witnessed serious rise. Since 2014, the border tension hit new levels with the Line of Control and International Border brimming with artillery and firearm sounds. The seriousness of the situation can be understood from the latest threat by army chief Gen Bipin Rawat. He said that India would mind to strike inside Pakistan if the need arose. Pakistan army has viewed it as a direct threat from Indian army and retorted that they were ready for war if it was imposed on them. It is no exaggeration to say that the current level of hostilities is the most dangerous escalation since the 2003 ceasefire agreement. Though the ceasefire violations never ceased on the LOC or working boundary but it had never been so threatening as it is today.
The numbers of dead on both sides, civil and military, is rising. Indian and Pakistani armies, some time back, released videos of attacks on each others’ positions on the LOC claiming heavy losses on both sides. The most unfortunate part is that there is no agency or process or set of protocols that appear to be able or willing to stop or at least bring a pause to what is now dangerously close to outright warfare. The provocative statements by military and political leadership and incensed media propaganda on both sides go on un-endingly.
It is now an admitted fact that political factors play a major role in determining the relations between the two countries. Vajpyee, who was seen as a man of peace, and General Musharaf, despite serious provocations from hardliners with the government and the deep state, sorted out a strategy to lessen the tension between the two countries which worked quite successfully. It was Vajpayee’s political sagacity that brought Gen Musharaf on board who put a stop to what India called cross border terrorism. The present dispensation however has different priorities. They are using external trouble for political gains internally. That way they have developed a vested interest in border tensions. It is most likely that the tension may escalate further given the political compulsions ahead of the ruling party at the centre.
The general elections in India are being held in April/May, and BJP would desperately need heightening India-Pakistan tension to woo electorate on its side. That might help BJP gain electorally but India, as nation, would have to bear its fruits.