The Government of India has notified a new Renewable Purchase Obligation trajectory, extending till 2029–30. This mandates each state and union territory to meet a specified portion of its energy needs through renewable sources. Jammu & Kashmir along with Ladakh, has assessed its requirements in alignment with this national directive. The projections for energy demand in these regions indicate a consistent upward trend, with a compounded annual growth rate of over 4% from 2024–25 to 2034–35. These estimates, provided both by the 20th Electric Power Survey (EPS) and by the UTs themselves, suggest that the pressure on existing energy infrastructure will intensify over the next decade. To ensure stable electricity access at reasonable costs, it is essential for the union territories to carefully plan their generation capacity expansion. The falling costs of solar photovoltaic technology and the growing feasibility of battery energy storage systems are opening up viable options for creating an energy mix that is both cost-effective and less polluting. A detailed study has been conducted to evaluate the present and projected capacity, and to determine how well the region can meet its RPO commitments. The analysis includes an assessment of existing energy infrastructure, planned additions, and the gap that still exists in meeting future demand. By the year 2034–35, the total unserved energy is expected to reach approximately 9,928 million units, which amounts to nearly 29% of the annual projected energy requirement. This suggests a considerable shortfall in supply if additional generation capacity is not contracted beyond what is already planned. Highest consumption is recorded in the winter months, particularly December and January. Presently, 69.22% of J&K’s energy generation comes from non-fossil fuel sources, giving it an edge in RPO compliance. In fact, the region is currently surplus with respect to RPO mandates and does not need to contract additional renewable energy solely for that purpose until 2029–30. Despite this, the anticipated energy deficit remains a concern. The shortfall is projected to range from 4,293 to 9,929 million units over the planning horizon. To address this, additional capacity—beyond what is already planned—will be required. This includes around 2,438 MW from coal-based plants, 1,200 MW from solar projects, and nearly 987 MW from distributed renewable energy (DRE) sources by 2034–35. Meanwhile, the efficiency of coal-based generation, measured through Plant Load Factor (PLF), is expected to decline over the decade—from 81% in 2024–25 to 46% by 2034–35. In scenarios designed to test the resilience of the energy system, a higher reliance on coal is observed—about 287 MW more than the base case by 2034–35. Moreover, under this alternate scenario, the requirement for short-term open access (STOA) power purchases increases by approximately 144 MW in 2024–25. On the other hand, the regions are expected to have excess capacity during the months of April to September, with surplus availability estimated between 230 MW and 740 MW in the year 2027–28. This surplus opens opportunities for exporting electricity to other states, creating possibilities for revenue generation and regional support during off-peak periods.
Power Planning
