A surge of over 1,000 earthquakes in a small southern island chain of Japan and a decades-old manga comic predicting a “megaquake” on July 5 have triggered widespread anxiety and speculation of an impending disaster.
However, Japan’s meteorological authorities have stressed that earthquakes cannot be predicted with current scientific methods, urging the public to rely on verified data rather than viral theories.
What’s Happening in Japan?
Since June 21, a total of 1,031 tremors have struck the Tokara Islands, located south of the Kyushu region. Recent quakes—one on Thursday and another 5.4-magnitude tremor on Saturday—have intensified fears among residents and observers.
Thursday’s quake was described as “strong enough to make standing difficult,” according to Reuters. Meanwhile, Japan’s government has warned of further possible quakes in the waters southwest of the main islands, while cautioning the public against unsubstantiated doomsday predictions.
Manga ‘Prophecy’ Fuels Panic
Much of the online frenzy has been fueled by the manga The Future I Saw by Ryo Tatsuki, first published in 1999 and reprinted in 2021. One of its illustrations appears to “predict” a megaquake striking Japan at 4:18 AM on July 5, followed by a devastating tsunami “three times larger” than the 2011 disaster.
Though nothing occurred at the predicted time, social media erupted with reactions. Some netizens posted, “It’s now 4:30 am in Japan and nothing has happened.”
The manga’s author has since clarified through her publisher that she is “not a prophet.”
Seismic Trends and Risk
Official data show the daily number of earthquakes peaked at 183 on June 23, dropped briefly, then surged again to 98 on June 29. This pattern has heightened public anxiety.
While Thursday’s quake posed no tsunami threat, Japan Meteorological Agency’s Ayataka Ebita warned that strong tremors could still cause landslides and house collapses in affected areas.
Real Risks vs Rumors
Japan’s Nankai Trough region has long been considered vulnerable to a massive seismic event. A government panel earlier this year raised the 30-year probability of a megaquake in the region to between 75% and 82%. A worst-case scenario could lead to 298,000 deaths and damage worth up to $2 trillion, according to revised estimates.
Despite the speculation, experts reiterate that earthquakes—though common in Japan—remain scientifically unpredictable in terms of timing, scale, or exact location.
How Common Are Quakes in Japan?
Japan sits on the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” where four major tectonic plates meet. The archipelago, home to 125 million people, experiences around 1,500 earthquakes annually and accounts for nearly 18% of the world’s quakes of magnitude 6 or higher.
A similar burst of seismic activity occurred in the Tokara Islands in September 2023, when 346 earthquakes were recorded in a short span.