`It poses great risk to villages and tourist infrastructure’: New study reveals 65 proglacial lakes can burst anytime in J&K

Srinagar: Glacial lakes have shown an alarming increase in Jammu and Kashmir, posing a threat to the downstream communities.

According to the latest report by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), twenty-five glacial lakes and water bodies in India, China, and Nepal have recorded over 40 percent rise in their water spread areas since 2009, posing a grave threat to five Indian states and two Union territories.

The seven states and Union Territories which are under threat are Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Bihar, and Himachal Pradesh.

Senior Assistant Professor, Coordinator Department of Geoinformatics, University of Kashmir Dr. Irfan Rashid told The Kashmir Monitor that there are around 18 thousand glacial lakes in the Third Pole region.

“The credible satellite data-based observations indicate the formation of new proglacial lakes and expansion of already existing ones in the region. Glacier modeling studies indicate this will pose an increased risk to downstream communities and infrastructure downstream,” he said.

Rashid noted that glaciers have a snout from which water releases and pours into these water formations called pro-glacial lakes. “These lakes have been showing a constant increase. The water volume will continue to increase since the lakes are still developing.”

For Jammu and Kashmir, 332 proglacial lakes have been identified out of which around 65 are potentially dangerous. Similarly, some of the lakes categorized as potentially dangerous lakes in the Indian Himalayas include proglacial lakes associated with Drang Drung, and Dulung glaciers in Zanskar, Samudra Tapu, and Gepang Gath in Himachal, South Lhonak, and Shako Cho in Sikkim, Gya, Rumbak and Lato glaciers in Leh, two lakes upstream of Chirsar and Brahmsar in the upper stretch of Vishav, Rashid explained.

“The pro-glacial lakes formed can burst due to three reasons. The sediments and boulders in them have a less bearing capacity which can lead to a lake outburst. The second reason is that the lakes are in the process of expansion. Since we lie in seismic zone 5, there are high chances of its burst with the occurrence of a high-intensity earthquake,” he said.

He emphasized that extreme precipitation like cloudbursts can also lead to lake bursts. “J&K and Ladakh have shown an increase in the frequency of cloud bursts in recent years. Therefore, it poses a great risk to the villages or tourist infrastructure in the vicinity of the lakes,” he said.

Dr. Irfan explained in light of the changing climate, they cannot stop the glaciers from melting per se.

“Glacial lake expansion would continue by the end of this century and this could also increase the frequency of glacial lake outbursts. However, environmentally friendly measures can be taken. Non-conventional sources including the use of solar-powered or CNG vehicles should be promoted by the policymakers in Eco-fragile Himalayas,” Rashid said.

He said the footfall of tourists in the ecologically fragile zones can be streamlined by scientifically assessing the carrying capacity. “Energy requirements should be fulfilled by alternate sources rather than fossil fuel.”