Mumbai :Global growth will keep a steady pace this year and next, buoyed by stronger trade and US fiscal stimulus that will fade by the early 2020s, while increased tariffs could damage market confidence and output, the International Monetary Fund said .
The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook, kept its 2018 and 2019 global growth forecasts unchanged at 3.9% for both years after upgrades in January.
The projections were released as thousands of global finance officials were gathering in Washington for the IMF and World Bank spring meetings this week.
The IMF said it raised its US growth forecast by 0.2 percentage point for both years, to 2.9% for 2018 and 2.7% for 2019. It said lower US corporate income tax rates and accelerated investments due to a temporary tax break would boost US growth through 2020, but these effects would then reverse quickly, causing a slowdown.
“Global growth is projected to soften beyond the next couple of years,” the IMF said in the report, adding that advanced economies would be “held back by aging populations and lackluster productivity.”
The Trump administration has maintained that Republican tax cuts passed last year would allow the United States to maintain sustained gross domestic product growth above 3 percent for years and defy forecasts that US budget deficits will balloon over the coming decade.
For now, the IMF said increased export demand was contributing to slight growth forecast upgrades for the euro area and Britain for 2018, while the IMF kept its forecasts unchanged for Japan, China, India, Russia and Mexico.
Forecasts were cut slightly for Canada, the Middle East and North African countries, as well as a number of low-income developing countries.
The IMF said prospects for developing economies to grow per-capita incomes face difficult prospects over the next five years, especially in commodity-exporting countries in the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean.
Risks to the global growth forecasts were broadly balanced for the next few quarters, with the potential for stronger business profits to increase hiring and investments that could boost productivity, the IMF said.
But trade tensions, such as the United States and China’s recent dueling tariff announcements, could take a direct toll on trade and economic activity and also cause financial market turmoil that would tighten financial conditions and hurt confidence.
“An increase in tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers could harm market sentiment, disrupt global supply chains, and slow the spread of new technologies, reducing global productivity and investment,” the IMF said. “Greater protectionism would also lower consumer welfare by making tradable consumer goods more expensive.”
Research from 2016, the IMF said, showed that tariffs or other barriers that led to a 10% increase in import prices in all countries would lower global output and consumption by about 1.75% after five years and close to 2% in the long term. Global trade would fall 15% after five years and 16% in the long run under such a scenario, it said.
Sensex sheds 298.82 to close at 38,811; Nifty shrinks to 11,650
Mumbai: The benchmark BSE Sensex erased early gains to end 299 points lower Thursday as investors booked profits after stocks soared to record highs after BJP’s strong showing in the Lok Sabha polls.
Sensex and NSE Nifty went on to record highs even as Lok Sabha election results showed that PM Modi-led NDA leading on over 300 seats. However after the euphoria during the morning session, Sensex shed 298.82 to close at 38,811 and Nifty shrank to 11,650 on the closing bell.
During the day, the Sensex hit the 40,000 mark while the Nifty crossed the 12,000-level for the first time ever. However, the indices succumbed to profit booking towards the fag-end of the session.
The 30-share Sensex tumbled 298.82 points, or 0.76 per cent, to close at 38,811.39. Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty settled 80.85 points, or 0.69 per cent, lower at 11,657.05.
IndusInd Bank was the biggest gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying 5.23 per cent, followed by Hero MotoCorp, Coal India, Yes Bank, PowerGrid, ICICI Bank, HCL Tech, L&T, Kotak Bank and Bharti Airtel, rising up to 1.56 per cent. On the other hand, Vedanta, ITC, Tata Motors, HDFC twins, Bajaj Finance, Sun Pharma, Tata Steel, TCS, ONGC and Infosys fell up to 5.53 per cent.
Riding on a massive Modi wave sweeping through most parts of India, the BJP was set to return to power Thursday as it led in 298 seats while the Congress trailed far behind with 52, according to trends released by the Election Commission for all 542 seats that went to polls.
“Markets were initially enthused to see the election results falling in line with the exit polls. However, the run up to the D-day was so sharp that it turned out to be a sell on news phenomenon,” said Devang Mehta, Head – Equity Advisory, Centrum Wealth Management.
Participants would now be keen to know the future course of action for bringing the economy back on track, solution to the liquidity situation, the union budget, onset and progress of monsoon in June and most importantly the earnings trajectory, he added.
According to traders, weak cues from other global markets and a depreciating rupee also weighed on investor sentiment. The rupee depreciated 37 paise to 70.04 against the US dollar in afternoon trade. Globally, bourses in Asia ended in the red.
Indices in Europe were also trading on a negative note in early deals. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 1.79 per cent lower at USD 69.72 per barrel.
Silver up on increased offtake; gold steady
New Delhi: Silver prices rallied by Rs 200 to Rs 37,400 per kg in the national capital on Thursday, while gold held steady, according to the All India Sarafa Association.
Traders said silver prices rose on pick-up in offtake by industrial units and coin makers at the local spot market. Globally, spot gold was trading marginally higher at USD 1,276 an ounce, while silver was slightly up at USD 14.53 an ounce in New York.
In the national capital, gold of 99.9 per cent and 99.5 per cent purity dropped by Rs 10 each to Rs 32,670 per ten 10 gram and Rs 32,500 per 10 gram. Sovereign gold, however, held steady at Rs 26,500 per eight gram.
Silver ready surged Rs 200 to Rs 37,400 per kg, while weekly-based delivery fell by Rs 66 to Rs 36,234 per kg. Silver coins held flat at Rs 79,000 for buying and Rs 80,000 for selling of 100 pieces.
India PC mkt declines 8.3 per cent to 2.15 mn units in Jan-Mar qarter
New Delhi: Personal Computer (PC) shipment in India fell by 8.3 per cent in the January-March quarter of 2019 to 2.15 million units, registering a year-on-year decline for the third consecutive quarter, according to research firm International Data Corporation (IDC).
Besides, big commercial deals, market remained weak due to weak consumer demand, high inventory from previous quarters, and supply issues for Intel chips.
Shipments in the consumer segment saw a 26.5 per cent dip in the said quarter compared to the year-ago period. The commercial PC market saw a total shipment of 1.35 million units in the said quarter, a growth of 7.3 per cent over last year.
“The announcement of central elections on March 10, 2019 resulted in the model code of conduct coming into immediate effect further resulting in a delay in execution of government projects and impacting the commercial segment,” IDC said in a statement.
However, IDC expects the overall PC market in India to witness a growth in the second quarter. The commercial market is expected to pick up post new government formation in May, while the consumer market is expected to pick up largely driven by back to school campaign by vendors and online sales.
HP maintained its leadership position with an overall market share of 28.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2019, followed by Dell (25.9 per cent), Lenovo (25.2 per cent) and Acer (11.7 per cent).
The notebook PC (laptop) category accounted for 61.4 per cent of the shipment and witnessed a 9.8 per cent year-on-year decline.