Global oil demand is projected to continue rising until 2029, even as top importer China hits its consumption peak in 2027, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday. The agency cited slower electric vehicle (EV) adoption and lower fuel prices in the U.S. as key reasons for sustained global growth.
According to the IEA’s latest annual report, oil demand will peak at 105.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029, then decline slightly in 2030. In contrast, global supply is forecast to reach 114.7 million bpd by the end of the decade, suggesting markets will remain well-supplied barring major geopolitical disruptions.
While China’s shift to EVs and alternative transport is expected to cap its demand by 2027, U.S. consumption has been revised upward due to weaker-than-expected EV penetration. The IEA now estimates EVs will make up just 20% of U.S. car sales by 2030, compared to the earlier forecast of 55%.
Tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, continue to pose risks to oil supply security. Despite a recent price spike to over $74 a barrel, the IEA maintains that near-term supply will outpace demand, with output expected to rise by 1.8 million bpd in 2025, outstripping the projected demand growth of just 720,000 bpd.
The IEA’s projections continue to diverge from OPEC’s, which anticipates sustained demand growth beyond 2030.