Srinagar, Oct 5: A poll of at least five exit polls shows that NC-Congress may win 42 out of 90 seats while BJP is expected to win 27. The majority mark in J&K is 46
. Some exit polls, however, have predicted that the National Conference-Congress alliance may win the assembly polls in J&K – the first since 2014.
A poll of at least four exit polls shows that NC-Congress may win 42 out of 90 seats while BJP is expected to win 27. The majority mark in J&K is 46.
Notably, J&K delivered a fractured mandate even in 2014 when the PDP emerged as the single largest party and formed a post-poll alliance with BJP to form the government.
The assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir — following the abrogation of Article 370 — concluded peacefully on October 1. Voters participated in a three-stage polling process, marking a significant political milestone for the region.
The Jammu and Kashmir National Conference and Congress, partners in the INDIA alliance, jointly contested the assembly polls while the PDP and BJP fought the elections on their own.
The counting of votes will take place on October 8.
While the Congress, National Conference, and People’s Democratic Party are part of the opposition INDIA bloc at the national level, the Mehbooba Mufti-led party decided to contest independently. The decision, however, may not be fruitful for the PDP as the exit poll data suggests the party’s tally may fall from 28 in the last election to 6-12 seats.
On the 43 seats in the Jammu region, the BJP is likely to retain its strong presence with the exit poll predicting 27-31 seats for the saffron party. The Congress-National Conference alliance may get 11-15 seats and the PDP may win 0-2 seats.
On the 47 seats in the Kashmir Valley, the exit poll predicts a strong performance of the Congress-National Conference alliance with 29-33 seats, an improvement from 16 seats in the 2014 election. The PDP, which won 25 seats in the Valley in 2014, may get 6-10 seats this time.
The BJP, which drew a blank in the Valley in the 2014 election, may also open its account this time.
The last assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir took place in 2014, where no party achieved a full majority. The PDP, led by Mehbooba Mufti, won 28 seats, making the BJP the second-largest party with 25 seats. Neither the PDP nor the BJP secured a simple majority, leading to a coalition government that lasted until June 19, 2018. On that date, the state government collapsed when the BJP withdrew its support, citing disagreements with the PDP on key issues, including the region’s militancy.
Jammu and Kashmir now has 90 Assembly constituencies after the recent delimitation exercise. The BJP opted to contest the elections solo, while the National Conference (NC) and Congress formed an alliance. The halfway mark in the Jammu & Kashmir assembly is 46 seats.
In 2014, during the last Assembly election held in Jammu and Kashmir, the CVoter exit poll predicted that no party would reach the 44-seat majority mark in the then 87-member Assembly. The exit poll had estimated that the PDP would lead with 32-38 seats, followed by the BJP with 27-33, the NC with 8-14, and Congress with 4-10. Eventually, the PDP won 28 seats, the BJP secured 25, the NC 15, the Congress won 12 seats, CPIM won 1, JKPC 2, JKPDF 1, and Independents won 3.