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Bad omen for the economy: Demand in India is cooling, shows RBI survey

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Mumbai :For those surprised by India’s decision to hold interest rates last week, the central bank’s forward-looking surveys hold some explanation: demand in the world’s fastest-growing major economy may be cooling.
The capacity utilization rate, consumer confidence, and the outlook for demand in the manufacturing sector in the third quarter were less optimistic, the results of separate surveys released by the Reserve Bank of India show. That bodes ill for an economy already grappling with a weak rupee and elevated prices of crude oil — the nation’s top import.
The tempering of optimism in the economy that expanded at 8 percent plus pace in the quarter to June was partly caused by tighter financial conditions, following back-to-back rate increases by the RBI until August and as the default by a systemically important financier plays out.
The International Monetary Fund retained its growth forecast for the $2.6 trillion economy at 7.3 percent in the fiscal year through March 2019. It lowered the projection for the next year to 7.4 percent, down from the 7.5 percent seen three months ago.
The RBI’s Industrial Outlook Survey of the Manufacturing Sector for the second quarter of 2018-19 showed that while the outlook for selling prices had improved, expectations for profit margins were unchanged.
“Their sentiments on the overall financial situation deteriorated due to some loss of optimism on availability of finance from banks and other sources,” the RBI survey said. However, respondents were more optimistic about availability of finance from abroad.
Meanwhile, the order books, inventories and capacity utilization survey for the April to June quarter that offer a snapshot of demand conditions showed capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector is declining. The findings are based on a survey of 994 manufacturing companies in India.
The inflation-targeting central bank left the repurchase rate unchanged at 6.5 percent on Friday. Only 9 of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted the move. The central bank also lowered the inflation forecast to a range of 3.9 percent to 4.5 percent for the second half of the year ending March, from 4.8 percent previously.
“Looking ahead, we see inflation continuing to undershoot the RBI’s forecasts, as a widening output gap reduces price pressures,” said Bloomberg economist Abhishek Gupta. “That should keep the RBI on hold in December, in our view.”


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Sensex sheds 298.82 to close at 38,811; Nifty shrinks to 11,650

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Mumbai: The benchmark BSE Sensex erased early gains to end 299 points lower Thursday as investors booked profits after stocks soared to record highs after BJP’s strong showing in the Lok Sabha polls.

Sensex and NSE Nifty went on to record highs even as Lok Sabha election results showed that PM Modi-led NDA leading on over 300 seats. However after the euphoria during the morning session, Sensex shed 298.82 to close at 38,811 and Nifty shrank to 11,650 on the closing bell.

During the day, the Sensex hit the 40,000 mark while the Nifty crossed the 12,000-level for the first time ever. However, the indices succumbed to profit booking towards the fag-end of the session.

 

The 30-share Sensex tumbled 298.82 points, or 0.76 per cent, to close at 38,811.39. Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty settled 80.85 points, or 0.69 per cent, lower at 11,657.05.

IndusInd Bank was the biggest gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying 5.23 per cent, followed by Hero MotoCorp, Coal India, Yes Bank, PowerGrid, ICICI Bank, HCL Tech, L&T, Kotak Bank and Bharti Airtel, rising up to 1.56 per cent. On the other hand, Vedanta, ITC, Tata Motors, HDFC twins, Bajaj Finance, Sun Pharma, Tata Steel, TCS, ONGC and Infosys fell up to 5.53 per cent.

Riding on a massive Modi wave sweeping through most parts of India, the BJP was set to return to power Thursday as it led in 298 seats while the Congress trailed far behind with 52, according to trends released by the Election Commission for all 542 seats that went to polls.

“Markets were initially enthused to see the election results falling in line with the exit polls. However, the run up to the D-day was so sharp that it turned out to be a sell on news phenomenon,” said Devang Mehta, Head – Equity Advisory, Centrum Wealth Management.

Participants would now be keen to know the future course of action for bringing the economy back on track, solution to the liquidity situation, the union budget, onset and progress of monsoon in June and most importantly the earnings trajectory, he added.

According to traders, weak cues from other global markets and a depreciating rupee also weighed on investor sentiment. The rupee depreciated 37 paise to 70.04 against the US dollar in afternoon trade. Globally, bourses in Asia ended in the red.

Indices in Europe were also trading on a negative note in early deals. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 1.79 per cent lower at USD 69.72 per barrel.

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Silver up on increased offtake; gold steady

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New Delhi: Silver prices rallied by Rs 200 to Rs 37,400 per kg in the national capital on Thursday, while gold held steady, according to the All India Sarafa Association.

Traders said silver prices rose on pick-up in offtake by industrial units and coin makers at the local spot market. Globally, spot gold was trading marginally higher at USD 1,276 an ounce, while silver was slightly up at USD 14.53 an ounce in New York.

In the national capital, gold of 99.9 per cent and 99.5 per cent purity dropped by Rs 10 each to Rs 32,670 per ten 10 gram and Rs 32,500 per 10 gram. Sovereign gold, however, held steady at Rs 26,500 per eight gram.

 

Silver ready surged Rs 200 to Rs 37,400 per kg, while weekly-based delivery fell by Rs 66 to Rs 36,234 per kg. Silver coins held flat at Rs 79,000 for buying and Rs 80,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

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India PC mkt declines 8.3 per cent to 2.15 mn units in Jan-Mar qarter

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New Delhi: Personal Computer (PC) shipment in India fell by 8.3 per cent in the January-March quarter of 2019 to 2.15 million units, registering a year-on-year decline for the third consecutive quarter, according to research firm International Data Corporation (IDC).

Besides, big commercial deals, market remained weak due to weak consumer demand, high inventory from previous quarters, and supply issues for Intel chips.

Shipments in the consumer segment saw a 26.5 per cent dip in the said quarter compared to the year-ago period. The commercial PC market saw a total shipment of 1.35 million units in the said quarter, a growth of 7.3 per cent over last year.

 

“The announcement of central elections on March 10, 2019 resulted in the model code of conduct coming into immediate effect further resulting in a delay in execution of government projects and impacting the commercial segment,” IDC said in a statement.

However, IDC expects the overall PC market in India to witness a growth in the second quarter. The commercial market is expected to pick up post new government formation in May, while the consumer market is expected to pick up largely driven by back to school campaign by vendors and online sales.

HP maintained its leadership position with an overall market share of 28.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2019, followed by Dell (25.9 per cent), Lenovo (25.2 per cent) and Acer (11.7 per cent).

The notebook PC (laptop) category accounted for 61.4 per cent of the shipment and witnessed a 9.8 per cent year-on-year decline.

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