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RSS’s quiet ‘support’ to Raj Thackeray

The Kashmir Monitor

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By Kumar Ketkar

What will NarendraModi be doing in the last week of May? For better or worse, many of the predictions about the final number of seats to be won in this LokSabha elections have been about the BharatiyaJanata Party. And setting the political analysts, and anyone with a number to pick, on a chase has been BJP president Amit Shah, who has predicted his party will win 350 seats when the results of the ongoing general elections are announced on 23 May.

Even if the BJP does not win as many seats as its leaders predict, many of them, citing several opinion polls, maintain that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will reach the majority mark of 273. That means NarendraModi will be taking oath for a second term. Columnists like Meghnad Desai and SurjitBhalla have expressed confidence about Modi’s return – either with a majority for the BJP alone or through coalitions under the NDA.

 

But quite a few political pundits have begun to say that the BJP-led NDA won’t cross even 200 seats. This means that the BJP spin doctors will have to mobilise about 100 more members to form a “stable” government. That indeed will put the system under huge convulsion and tension. Post-poll alliances are extremely difficult and even dubious.

One can recall how the NDA government led by AtalBihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani in 1998 and 1999 remained in a limbo for almost a week when J Jayalalitha played truant. There are many mavericks and self-styled masterminds of political skulduggery, like Subramaniam Swami, who can disrupt the process. Swami can raise a red flag by just seeing ArunJaitley in the new firmament.

There are quite a few in the Central Hall or corporate conclaves or Press Clubs who say with considerable confidence that if the BJP alone is just around 200, then despite being the single largest party, Modi won’t return to the Prime Minister’s Office. The party itself will stop him in the tracks.

The reason being, it is said, the RashtriyaSwayamsevakSangh (RSS) and the loyalists to the Sangh do not want Modi and Amit Shah. Indeed, there are many who feel that Raj Thackeray’s “toofan” against Modi-Shah in Maharashtra is backed by support from the top leadership of the Sangh. Thackeray’s Maharashtra NavnirmanSena is not contesting any seat in this LokSabha elections.

People outside of Maharashtra might not be aware of the fantastic whirlwind and highly aggressive campaign that Raj Thackeray had been leading against Modi and Amit Shah, calling the duo a “threat to the nation”. Thackeray has taken a vow to make India “Modi-mukt”. Lakhs and lakhs of people are thronging to his rallies while the social media has been hailing him in a style usually reserved for Rajinikanth.

The BJP-led NDA could have anybody – from Rajnath Singh to NitinGadkari – replace the top two in the party’s rank should the SanghParivar decide to sidelineNarendraModi and Amit Shah. This hypothesis is based on another presumption -that the RSS does not want Modi as he has become larger than life and unbearable to the party. Such speculations do not require evidence or data.

There are others who confidently say that even if BJP gets anywhere between 180 and 200 seats, Modi can manoeuvre the magical figure of 273 by roping in BijuJanata Dal (and meeting any demands of its leader NavinPatnaik, the chief minister of Odisha) and by giving favourable signals to any of YSR Congress’ Jagan Mohan Reddy’s wishes. There are also people who predict like short-term Nostradamus that MayawatiBahujanSamaj Party (BSP) will break its alliance with the Samajwadi Party (SP) to join Modi-led NDA. After all, she had campaigned for Modi in 2002 after the Gujarat pogrom.

There is also a doomsday-like scenario painted by some observers. They say that Modi will just not quit. With the help of the President, the Election Commission, the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), a servile media and even the judiciary, Modi will continue to be in charge. Why, he can declare an Emergency or summon the army to help him “govern”.

It is interesting that nobody says Modi will sit on the opposition benches, or be ready to become the leader of the NDA-Opposition. Some do say that he would wait to let parliamentary chaos prevail and create situation for a mid-term LokSabha election.

Already crafty calculations and conspiracy theories have begun to float. There are supposedly many Brutus-like characters, who can destabilise the roles of NarendraModi, Amit Shah, Kamal Nath, SharadPawar, Mayawati or even Rahul Gandhi, once redefining of the post-poll alliances begin to take shape.

Apparently, unpredictable and unimaginable alliances spring up confounding the media and politicians themselves. For instance, in 1996, AtalBihari Vajpayee could not continue as the prime minister because he had the support of only three parties -Shiv Sena, Akali Dal and Haryana VikasManch – which wasn’t enough. He could not get the needed numbers despite being his BJP emerging as the single largest party with 161 seats in the general elections.

But the same BJP under Vajpayee managed support of 24 parties just two years later, and the new NDA was born. The hardcore anti-BJP parties like the All India DravidaMunnetraKazghagam (AIADMK) in 1998 and even the DMK in 1999 (after J Jayalalithaa parted ways from the alliance), joined the Vajpayee-led government. Later, Chandrababu Naidu, Mamata Banerjee, Farooq Abdullah as well as the stridently “anti-communal” Lohia school socialist like George Fernandes became members of the Vajpayee government. If AtalBihari Vajpayee can perform that rope trick, why not NarendraModi, goes the argument.

Opinion polls maintain that Modi remains the most popular leader, more than the BJP, and that the Balakot air strikes have made him a “braveheart” nationalist. Even people in rural parts, about whom it is said that government policies and issues of daily life matter more, are believed to be seeing in him a “saviour of the nation”. All of this leads some to say that nationalism and national security has gripped the electorate’s psyche and is the dominating factor in this election.

The detractors, however, say that real issues like, jobs, farmers’ distress, GST and demonetisation-related chaos and collapse of the small and medium industry are more important for the voters than nationalism. At least, I have not seen the nationalist frenzy in the parts I travelled. But who and what can we say about the so-called silent voter?

After all Indira Gandhi and her Congress were routed in 1977 by the Janata Party and then the same Janata Party was demolished by Indira Gandhi in 1980. The BJP could win just two seats in 1985, and yet could win 182 seats in 1998 and 1999. Nobody visualised the defeat of Vajpayee’s “Shining India” government in 2004. And of course very few gave NarendraModi a full majority in 2014.

With this kind of electoral history, who can really say what NarendraModi will be doing in the last week of May?

The author is a former editor and Congress member of RajyaSabha. Views are personal.


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Opinion

Growing crimes against women

The Kashmir Monitor

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By Aritry Das

For years India has grappled with the tag of being the ‘most dangerous country for women‘. Successive governments introduced measures, but there is increasing evidence that they don’t work – and are counter-productive. Indeed, in key Indian states, cases of sexual violence are on the rise.

The Constitution of India mandates that as a federal union of states, law and order issues remain primarily with state governments, unless there are overarching issues such as terrorism. This results in many states trying different methods to tackle growing violence against women, and creating a range of other problems rather than solutions.

 

States like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are the top states for registered rapes and sexual assaults, according to data from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), a federal body that collates statistics across states. These state governments are introducing new measures to increase women’s safety, but experts say their moves are not addressing root causes and systemic failures in India’s creaking criminal justice system.

As many as 38,947 rapes were reported in 2016, which was a rise of 12% from 2015. The number of cases reported under “sexual assault, harassment and molestation”, was 84,746 nationally. This is the second-most common crime against women after “domestic violence” cases.

When Uttar Pradesh chief minister Ajay Singh Bisht, (Yogi Adityanath) came to power in 2017, he decided to tackle the problem of women’s safety by creating the controversial ‘anti-Romeo squad’, with police roaming in civil dress to surveil public spaces to keep a check on street harassers (also known as “roadside Romeos”).

The squad was eventually disbanded. But following a spate of rapes of minors, Bisht directed the police to revive the squad with the new power to issue a warning ‘red card’ to ‘suspected harassers’. If a person is caught twice doing a similar act, he will face criminal proceedings.

The squad had earlier drawn flak after reports surfaced about them targeting and publicly shaming young men, giving moral advice to couples, while some were made to do sit-ups or had their heads shaved in public.

Vaibhav Krishna, a Senior Superintendent of Police in Noida, Uttar Pradesh, told Asia Times that police officers for 23 anti-Romeo squads were receiving gender sensitization and training programs to help them handle cases better.

The squad’s further empowerment has raised concerns. Reports of the squad “moral policing” couples and a subsequent increase in sexual violence cases indicated that the measure was not working, according to PoonamKaushik, a women’s rights activist and general secretary of PragatisheelMahilaSangathan.

In the neighboring state of Rajasthan, crimes against women under all sections of the Indian Penal Code (IPC) jumped by around 40% and rape cases rose by 30% in the first five months of this year compared to the same period last year. This happened despite the government setting up its own version of the anti-Romeo squad in 2018 with policewomen on two-wheelers.

“In Rajasthan, the government has not set up enough women’s help desks or One-Stop Crisis Centers [to assist rape victims]. Instead, they are trying to create these mechanisms [anti-Romeo squad] that are working against women being in public spaces due to moral policing,” said women’s rights activist KavitaSrivastava, who played a key role in the framing of the Vishakha guidelines to address sexual harassment at workplaces.

Now the Rajasthan government plans to set up special investigation units for crimes against women.

Delhi, meanwhile, had at least five rapes reported every day last year, according to NCRB data. So, the state government wants to boost safety by bringing more women into public spaces through free metro and bus rides, and installing 300,000 CCTV cameras. The Delhi Police, which reports to the Home Ministry, also launched a motorcycle-fleet of female cops to patrol the streets called Raftar.

But it is hard to spot this patrol squad on the road, according to Jaya Velankar, director of Jagori, a women’s organization that works to make city spaces safer. She also pointed out that unless roads are safe, free public transport won’t work.

Data from Delhi Police shows that sexual violence against women has only marginally decreased in recent times. In the first six months of 2019, reported cases of rape (IPC 376) were 973, down from 1,005 cases in the same period in 2018, while cases of assault on women with intent to outrage her modesty (IPC 354) decreased by 172 and insults to the modesty of women (IPC 509) decreased by 101.

Madhya Pradesh was the first state to propose the death penalty for men who rape girls under the age of 12, back in 2017. But violence against women has not gone down. Rape of minor girls in the state made headlines throughout June this year. Now the government has taken an initiative to introduce GPS tracking devices and emergency “panic buttons” in passenger vehicles such as buses and taxis.

Maharashtra assigned a 2.5-billion-rupee (US$36 million) budget for women’s safety initiatives. But sexual violence cases have risen despite this. But a survey by non-government groups Akshara and Safetipin found that 44% of areas in Mumbai, the state capital, were unsafe. It said women were only safe to walk on 22% of Mumbai’s streets.
This year the Maharashtra government finally proposed safety measures such as setting up SOS hotspots, tracking apps and installing more CCTV cameras.

However, feminists are not convinced that surveillance leads to greater safety for women or a loss of autonomy.

The rising number of crimes has put state lawmakers in a difficult position and they have criticized the police, who then discourage women from filing cases, Velankar claimed. But a higher number of reported cases also meant that more women were coming out to report violence and governments now had greater responsibility to assure they get justice, she said.

The implementation of a major national scheme to increase women’s safety is also not faring well. Recent reports revealed that between 2015 and 2018, states and union territories used less than 20% of the 8.5-billion-rupee ($124 million) budget allocated to them under the Nirbhaya Fund, which supports schemes for women’s safety. The fund was set up in the aftermath of a brutal gang-rape of a paramedical student in New Delhi in December 2012. Delhi, which has the highest rate of crime against women, fared the worst by using only 0.84% of the 350 million rupees it received.

“The Nirbhaya Fund is used as per proposals from different departments of the central and state governments. It will not be implemented if there is no will to do so,” a senior federal official of the Ministry of Women and Child Development told Asia Times on the condition of anonymity.

Experts say government initiatives and implementation of laws won’t create change if a culture of impunity has made the criminal justice system weak. Kaushik noted that some of the worst accusations against the police stem from recent rape cases of minors in Unnao and Kathua, where they are alleged to have bowed to pressure from people of influence to bury cases and evidence.

The Unnao rape victim, who claimed she was a minor at the time of the incident, tried to self-immolate last year due to the police not registering her complaint against a BJP lawmaker. In the Kathua case verdict, four police officers were convicted among the six accused in connection to rape and murder of an eight-year-old Kashmiri girl.

Another major hurdle that stops victims of sexual violence from getting justice is the low conviction rate in India, which is a mere 25.5% for rape and just under 22% for sexual assault and harassment, according to NCRB data.

(Courtesy: atimes.com)

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Opinion

Why justice matters in Jammu and Kashmir

The Kashmir Monitor

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By Harinder Baweja

Pakistan has for long sponsored terrorism in?Kashmir. But is it enough for India to point to “causality”, without introspecting on the fact that Kashmir has a long litany of documented human rights violations that have gone unpunished?

Think about it. Why does India get prickly each time allegations of human rights abuse in Jammu and Kashmir are placed at its door? Is it because there is some truth in the allegations? Does India have a lot to hide when it comes to violations committed by its men in uniform?

 

Dismissing an updated report by Office of UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), which faulted both India and Pakistan for not improving the situation in Kashmir, a ministry of external affairs (MEA) spokesperson said last week, “A situation created by years of cross-border terrorist attacks emanating from Pakistan has been analysed without any reference to its causality.”

Reflecting India’s indignation at being called out, the spokesperson said, the report “seems to be a contrived effort to create an artificial parity between the world’s largest and most vibrant democracy and a country that openly practices state-sponsored terrorism.”

Let us get this out of the way first.

Yes, it can be said, with no hesitation at all, that Pakistan has for long sponsored terrorism and will likely continue to practise its “bleed India through a thousand cuts” policy. It has suffered humiliation at the hands of the United Nations Security Council, which recently declared Jaish-e-Mohammad chief, MasoodAzhar, a global terrorist. But that tag too is unlikely to lead to the Pakistani deep State severing its ties with the jihadi outfits it sees as “assets.”

But is it enough for India to point to “causality”, without introspecting on the fact that Kashmir has a long litany of documented human rights violations that have gone unpunished? The Valley, in fact, has erupted in anger each time the men in uniform have crossed the line, but justice – that ever so important balm for a population as alienated as Kashmir’s – has mostly stayed elusive.

Let’s talk about the two occasions when the Valley boiled over with anger.

First, in 2010, Kashmiris took to the streets after the Indian Army, in a fake encounter, killed three civilians and passed them off as infiltrating terrorists. The gross violation was proved beyond a doubt. The unsuspecting civilians had been lured to Machil, a forward sector along the Line of Control, and killed in cold blood. Despite an Army court martial pronouncing five of its men guilty and sentencing them for life, the Armed Forces Tribunal suspended the sentence, arguing that civilians ought not to have been in a forward location, wearing “pathan suits”.

Just like in 2010, when over 100 protesting youth were shot dead, in 2016 too, the civilian toll crossed 100 after stone pelters – angry with the killing of militant commander Burhan Wani – took to the streets. Kashmir gave vent to deep anger and betrayal – not only because Wani was eliminated – but because the trust deficit between the Valley and Delhi had eroded over years, and reached break point.

The pellet gun became the symbol of oppression. It blinded, maimed and killed. The OHCHR report that India summarily dismissed, pointed to the basic tenets of injustice: “There is no information about any new investigation into excessive use of force leading to casualties. There is no information on the status of the five investigations launched into extrajudicial executions in 2016… No prosecutions have been reported.”

Kashmiris live with this reality every day. Why must brazen killings go unpunished? More importantly, why lash out at a report that questions excessive use of force?
The Kashmiri wound is deep and it has festered for too long. One major step forward would be to reduce the repressive security measures. Instead of negating charges of abuse and human rights violations, India ought to take steps towards setting up a truth and reconciliation commission. Why not encourage public hearings in which victims and their families are encouraged to speak?

Reaching out and admitting to violations will help rebuild trust. It is not enough to merely look at figures that point to a reduction in infiltration. The problem now centresaround home-grown militants. Violations only fuel the cycle of violence.

Admit, address and provide justice, for Kashmir is not a piece of real estate, to be ruled by force.

(Courtesy: Hindustan Times)

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Opinion

Remove stigma, report psychiatric ailments

The Kashmir Monitor

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By Dr Arif Maghribi Khan

“All patients are mad. All psychiatric medicines cause sleep.” Yes, this is the common perception in Kashmir. While the fact remains that according to easiest classifications of diseases, there are two types of psychiatric ailments – neurotic and psychotic. In neurotic diseases, patient does not lose contact with reality.

The patient can tell you his or her name, address, locality correctly while in psychotic ailments, patient’s contact with reality is lost and he or she lives in world of their own. Such patients often report seeing angels, strange figures, or hearing voices or sounds, which nobody else sitting with the patient sees or hears.

 

One example of psychotic ailments is schizophrenia, the prevalence of which is as low as 0.5 per 1000, while ailments like depression, anxiety, phobia form the bulk of psychiatric ailments. Even in this day and age, when all the world of knowledge and information is at our fingertips, we as a society have not been able to differentiate between the two.

So the stigma remains attached with psychiatric ailments thus delaying diagnosis and treatment. It is because of this stigma, people visit psychiatric settings with faces covered or masked. Young adults and children fear to disclose to their parents if they suffer from depression or anxiety disorders, which leads them to live an impaired life, wherein they struggle with issues like loss of interest in studies or even loss of employment as their inability to concentrate consistently tears apart their social and professional lives.

Parents are there to discipline and guide children but not to make them fear depression. Another problem hitting psychiatric healthcare in Kashmir is the myth that all medicines prescribed by psychiatrists cause sleep, while the fact is that psychiatric medicines work by increasing, changing or blocking activities of neurotransmitters.

Nerves carry information from the body to the brain and vice versa. The brain is composed of roughly 86 billion neurons. Chemical messengers called neurotransmitters carry messages between neurons to help the brain receive the information, decide what it means and execute a reaction. Neurotransmitters are responsible for emotional regulation, pain perception, motivation, concentration, memory energy, mood, sleep patterns, libido. Any imbalance can result in Depression, Nightmares, Mental Fatigue, Anxiety, Impaired cognition, attention, and arousal, Apathy, Lack of motivation, Poor attention, and Fatigue. Most of the time a qualified psychiatrist uses anti-depressants which do not cause sleep, in first few months of treatment depending upon the psychiatric ailment anxiolytics, also known as ‘tranquilizers’ are used.

So let’s stop assuming that all medicines cause sleep and we will be dependent on them for rest of our life.

The biggest challenge faced by doctors today and specially psychiatrists is that due to easy availability of internet most patients start Google searching medicine for 8 minutes prescribed by a doctor who studied medicine for 8 years, fact is that not all information surfers get on medicine by Google search is authenticated. Patients are well advised to seek such information from doctor rather than what is searched on internet or what a specialist from other field like education or engineering has to say!

We need to fight epidemic of psychiatric ailments including drug abuse on basis of science and not search on internet. It’s as simple as that, to aware common people doctors, counsellors from field of mental health need to work vigorously in community to clear myths and mist surrounding psychiatric ailments. We need to give patients of anxiety disorders or drug abuse respect and not scare them with unfounded information. Also next time we label some person as mad for being stressed kindly read this survey of again “Nearly 1.8 million adults (45% of the population) in the Kashmir show symptoms of significant mental distress according to a comprehensive mental health survey conducted by the medical humanitarian organisation Médecins Sans Frontières/Doctors Without Borders (MSF) between October and December 2015. The research was done in collaboration with the Department of Psychology, Kashmir University and the Institute of Mental Health and Neuroscience (IMHANS).

(Author can be mailed at [email protected])

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