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Afghanistan’s neighbours fear refugee crisis if US pulls out

KABUL: Afghanistan’s neighbours, caught off-guard by reports of US plans to withdraw thousands of troops, have begun preparing for the risk that a pullout could send hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing across their borders, diplomats say.

Alarmed by the possibility of a chaotic withdrawal, diplomats from neighbouring countries who have been in talks with US officials in Kabul said they were reassessing policies and would ramp up border preparations.

“At this point there is no clarity about the withdrawal, but we have to keep a clear action plan ready,” said a senior Asian diplomat based in Kabul. “The situation can turn from bad to worse very quickly.”

A White House spokesman last week said US President Donald Trump had not issued orders to the Pentagon to withdraw troops from Afghanistan. But the administration has not denied reports that the United States plans to pull out almost half of the 14,000-strong force currently deployed.

The reports come amid an intensification of moves towards peace negotiations in Afghanistan. US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad met Taliban representatives last month and discussed issues around a future troop withdrawal as well as proposals for a ceasefire.

But even among regional powers such as Iran, Pakistan or Russia that have long been suspicious that the United States wants permanent military bases in South Asia, there is no appetite for a sudden US withdrawal, say analysts.

“While the news of a potential US drawdown may be a reason for cautious optimism in the region, they don’t want an abrupt withdrawal,” said Graeme Smith, a consultant for the International Crisis Group.

“All sides recognise that a precipitous pullout could spark a new civil war that destabilises the region. The neighbours do not enjoy surprises, and the uncertain signals from Washington are causing anxiety.”